The price of a “special operation” in Ukraine. Online

The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the "special military operation" in Ukraine, which began on February 24

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17:52 Joe Biden, as part of a strategy to combat inflation, instructed his administration to consider removing some import duties from China, which were introduced by former President Donald Trump, said US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo . It is proposed to reduce tariffs on household goods, bicycles, etc., while duties on steel and aluminum in order to protect the interests of American workers and the steel industry will remain in force, said Raimondo.

17:37 The EU has prepared a plan to replace gas from Russia, said EU Commissioner for the Internal Market Thierry Breton. According to him, the block imports 155 billion cubic meters a year from Russia. The new plan assumes that 50 billion cubic meters will be provided by LNG imports from the United States or Qatar. Brussels will receive another 10 billion cubic meters through the current pipelines, and 25 billion through the accelerated launch of floating wind turbines and solar panels. Breton also allowed the restart of coal-fired power plants.

16:21 Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol may start shipping Venezuelan oil to Europe as early as July, five people familiar with the matter told Reuters. Both have joint ventures with the Venezuelan state company PDVSA and could set off deliveries against debt and past due dividends, the sources say. According to one of them, the volumes of oil supplied will be small and will not have a significant impact on world prices. The key condition is that oil “should go to Europe”, it cannot be resold anywhere else. At the same time, the very fact that the import of oil from Venezuela received a "green light" from Washington may have a symbolic meaning for the head of state, Nicolas Maduro, writes Reuters. According to the agency, the Joe Biden administration hopes that Venezuelan oil will help Europe reduce its energy dependence on Russia and draw part of Venezuelan supplies from China. Another goal is to convince Maduro to resume negotiations with the opposition at home.

14:12 France is looking for an alternative to energy supplies from Russia. The UAE can help replace Russian oil and diesel fuel, at least for a while - the corresponding negotiations have already begun, said Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire. Paris also intends to accelerate the "green" transition to renewable energy, in particular by increasing investment in the construction of floating wind farms.

13:29 The largest law firms in the UK are increasingly refusing to work with clients from Russia for fear of falling under sanctions or incurring reputational losses, writes FT. This has already touched on several high-profile cases. For example, in April, Freshfields, one of the largest international law firms, refused to continue working with VTB, which fell under sanctions. According to Portland Communications for the year to March 2022, the Russians were the second group of plaintiffs after the British to use the English courts to resolve commercial disputes. In the long term, Russian lawsuits are unlikely to return to London and are likely to move to Dubai or Singapore, lawyers say.

The main thing in the morning:

• The wife of billionaire Andrey Melnichenko (founder of the SUEK coal company and producer Eurochem) Alexander Melnichenko will challenge the EU sanctions in court, Reuters reports citing a representative of the spouses. According to him, the inclusion of Alexandra Melnichenko in the sanctions list is “unreasonable”, since she never had Russian citizenship and did not live in Russia. Earlier, Reuters wrote that Andrey Melnichenko transferred shares in SUEK and Eurochem to his wife on March 8 - the day before the EU imposed sanctions against the businessman - according to a scheme originally envisaged in case of his death. This made it possible to withdraw EuroChem (headquartered in Zug, Switzerland) from sanctions.
• Russian sanctions against Gazprom Germania and its subsidiaries could cost Germany an additional €5 billion a year, writes Welt am Sonntag, citing industry representatives. This amount includes deliveries at higher prices from new suppliers, a surcharge to compensate for expenses will be established from October. The Russian sanctions were imposed in response to the decision of the German authorities to introduce temporary external management of Gazprom Germania.

Continued online June 5

18:43 The European Union has begun work on the seventh package of sanctions against Russia, Deputy Foreign Minister of Poland Pavel Yablonsky said in an interview with the Polish Press Agency. According to him, the new restrictions should become tougher - in particular, affect Russian gas, as well as provide for further disconnection of Russian banks from the SWIFT system and an embargo on technology exports. In addition, Yablonsky allowed the confiscation of frozen assets. Work in this direction is underway, the deputy minister assured.

16:22 Sovcombank, which fell under US sanctions, could participate in the deal to sell McDonald's in Russia to businessman Alexander Govor, the found out BBC Russian Service . The publication cites SPARK data from June 1, according to which an agreement was concluded between the Club-Hotel company (through which Govor acquires McDonald's) and Sovcombank on the pledge of property rights - under the agreement "loan financing of LLC" McDonald's "". After a request from the BBC, it was removed from the FNP website, from where SPARK, among other things, collects data.

The source of the agency, familiar with the details of the transaction, claims that there are two different agreements: one fixes the obligations of the Club Hotel to Sovcombank, the other - from McDonald's to the Club, and if the Club does not repay the debt to Sovcombank , then the bank will receive the rights of claim to McDonald's.

14:07 Oleg Tinkov, who left Russia, in a new post on Instagram (owned by Meta, which is recognized as extremist and banned in the Russian Federation), urged others to think about migration: “Leave or not from dictatorial Russia? If you are under 30 - YES! If you have a profession that is in demand in the world - YES! In other cases, you need to think.

Tinkov called his decision to return to Russia at the end of the 90s a mistake and assured that this would not happen again: “Emigration is not scary, you get used to it quickly, it’s better for everyone to live in a free country without even understanding everything.”

In conclusion, the businessman expressed regret for every life lost due to the conflict over Ukraine.

13:30 Kazakhstan is changing the name of its oil exported through Russian ports to Kazakhstan Export Blend Crude Oil (KEBCO) to avoid sanctions risks, Reuters reports citing CNPC-Aktobemunaigas. Agency sources in several Kazakh oil companies specified that the measure would come into force on Monday, June 6.

20% of oil supplied from Kazakhstan for export passes through Russian ports (about 13.3 million tons in 2021), Reuters writes. According to traders interviewed by the agency, Kazakhstani oil has been mistaken for Russian oil more than once. The Washington Post wrote that Kazakhstan-produced oil was blended with Russian oil to produce standardized export grades - Russian Export Blend of Crude Oil (REBCO/Urals) and Siberian Light.

12:13 The occupancy of hotels in St. Petersburg for the period of the SPIEF may be reduced by 5-10 percentage points compared to last year, writes Kommersant , citing experts. They explained this by the desire of business to cut costs and the expected reduction in contacts with international partners. Despite the decline in demand, the rate for accommodation in hotels in St. Petersburg traditionally increases during the SPIEF.

The main thing in the morning:

• Roman Abramovich and his partners in Evraz are selling the British telecommunications group Truphone for £1, told FT sources . This decision was made after the businessman was on the sanctions lists of the EU and the UK. The deal is scheduled to close in June, with the new owners of Truphone being Hakan Koç, co-founder of used car trading platform Auto1 (90% stake) and his business partner, Pirros Koussios (10% stake), who has held senior positions in telecommunications companies.
• The US, UK and EU have been regularly discussing possible terms for a ceasefire in Ukraine through diplomatic channels in recent weeks, CNN reports , citing sources familiar with the talks. One of the topics was the Italian four-phase plan proposed at the end of May. It provides for Ukraine's refusal to join NATO in exchange for certain security guarantees and autonomy for Crimea and Donbass. As CNN notes, Kyiv does not directly participate in these discussions, despite the promise of the US authorities to abide by the principle of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine." However, two American officials assured that Washington does not really support the Italian proposal. The Biden administration, according to CNN, also sees no prospects for a negotiated solution to the conflict.
• Viacheslav Volodin expressed confidence that Brussels and Washington had "exhausted their arsenal of means" to curb Russia's development. In his discussions on the sixth package of EU sanctions, the speaker of the State Duma noted that Russia's losses from the ban on oil exports to Europe could amount to $22 billion, but at the same time "be fully compensated" due to rising energy prices and the reorientation of sales markets to Asian direction. And Europe, Volodin believes, will overpay more than €250 billion annually. We talked about the price of the oil embargo for Russia and whether the country will be able to compensate for it here .
• The Federal Air Transport Agency extends the ban on flights to airports in the central part and south of Russia until June 12. Airlines are recommended to organize the transportation of passengers on alternative routes: through the airports of Sochi, Volgograd, Mineralnye Vody, Stavropol and Moscow. The ban has been extended for the 17th time.

Continued online June 4

21:14 The Ministry of Justice added to the lists of foreign agents. The register of media-foreign agents includes six more people, including journalists Alexei Pivovarov and Oleg Kashin. into the register of individuals-foreign agents . got Businessman Yevgeny Chichvarkin (for political activities)

20:43 All settlements in the securities market go through the National Settlement Depository, which was under EU sanctions and declared it an emergency. We explain what sanctions against NSD mean and what consequences private investors may face.

20:19 The National Settlement Depository (NSD) suspends operations in euros due to the EU sanctions imposed against it and recognizes the situation as an emergency.

19:52 Even before the EU embargo, Western oil companies and large traders refused to work with Russian oil. Now their place is taken by companies of a completely different kind - opaque intermediaries with post-Soviet roots and newly created firms registered in "friendly" jurisdictions. Analytical agency Energy Intelligence analyzed the rapidly graying Russian oil trading market. Read the highlights from the investigation here .

18:15 The Marriott hotel chain has announced that it is suspending operations in Russia. The company explained its decision by the protracted conflict in Ukraine and sanctions. According to the information on the website, Marriott has more than 20 hotels in Russia under different brands. The company has been operating in the country for 25 years and believes that its exit from the market will be difficult. More details in our news .

17:30 The Bell's source in Yandex:

“ The departure of [Arkady Volozh] from all posts, from control and decision-making in this case is the standard path through which all companies whose shareholders are under sanctions go. And then the situation can develop very differently. In fact, such a decision legally removes all risks, but in practice everything will depend on how banks, governments and regulators behave.

According to the experience of other companies, this strongly depends on the industry: if it is, for example, Deripaska and Rusal, then everyone continues to cooperate, because aluminum is needed. As will be the case with Yandex, it is difficult to predict. But for this, in any case, it will be necessary for Volozh to lose control in the company.

17:28 Part of the certified Lego stores in Russia have suspended work due to supply problems, reports RIA Novosti with reference to the company. According to information on the website, Lego has 48 stores in 17 regions of Russia. How many of them stopped working is not specified.

16:45 Volozh’s personal statement (provided in release ): the Yandex

“I consider the decision of the commission illogical. However, while sanctions are in effect, I will not give any instructions or recommendations to the trust regarding voting, decisions will continue to be made by the board of directors. This will protect the interests of the company and all our shareholders. In doing so, I will continue to help the company and its team.”

16:31 Arkady Volozh is leaving all posts at Yandex, the company said half an hour after Volozh was included in the EU sanctions list. Volozh served as CEO of Yandex's parent company, the Dutch Yandex NV, and was a member of its board of directors.

16:03 There are 18 legal entities and 65 individuals on the list, including Alina Kabaeva, wife of Dmitry Peskov and their children. As well as members of the Russian administration of Kherson and officers of military units, who are considered by the EU to be involved in crimes against humanity in Bucha.

15:49 Also, the EU sanctions list includes the National Settlement Depository (NSD), through which the Ministry of Finance is going to make payments on public debt.

15:42 The founder of "Yandex" Arkady Volozh was included in the sanctions list of the European Union.

13:28 Dmitry Peskov on the results of 100 days of the “special operation”: “Certain results have been achieved: many settlements have been liberated from the pro-Nazi-minded Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as directly from nationalist elements, and people have been given the opportunity to start establishing a peaceful life. This work will continue until the moment when all the goals of the special military operation are achieved.”

12:40 Ministry of Finance: oil and gas revenues of the budget in May exceeded the estimated ones by 263.7 billion rubles, the forecast for the excess for June is 392.9 billion rubles.

12:09 Elon Musk, in an internal letter to Tesla managers yesterday entitled "Stop Hiring Worldwide" wrote that he had "a terrible feeling about the economy" and that the company's workforce needs to be cut by 10%. The letter was reported by Reuters. Given that Tesla has almost 100,000 employees, about 10,000 will have to be laid off.

In the premarket, the company's quotes fell by almost 3%, since the beginning of the year - by almost a third.

11:34 Severstal shares continued to fall on Friday after the US included the company and its owner Alexei Mordashov in the list of blocking SDN sanctions. In two sessions, the drop reached 25%.

11:24 The German insurance company Allianz is selling a controlling stake in the Russian business to Interholding LLC, which owns Zetta Insurance LLC, while retaining 49.9%.

Interholding is controlled by the co-owner of Olma investment company Oleg Yachnik, notes Frank Media . The assets of Zetta Insurance at the end of 2021 amounted to 11.3 billion rubles, the assets of the Russian subsidiary of Allianz - 55.7 billion rubles.

11:02 The EU has published the sixth package of sanctions against Russia. It corresponds to what was previously known about it and includes the oil embargo, the consequences of which for the Russian economy, we wrote in detail here . Sberbank, Rosselkhozbank and Moscow Credit Bank are disconnected from SWIFT.

10:48 Leonard Blavatnik "the smartest Russian oligarch" Bloomberg called - primarily because he "without much fuss was able to tear his fortune of $ 37 billion from Russian roots." Born in Odessa, Blavatnik, who got his share from both Russian oil and Russian aluminum, nevertheless escaped the sanctions that were imposed on his former partners Mikhail Fridman, Pyotr Aven and German Khan, as well as former classmate Viktor Vekselberg. “He is similar to other Russian billionaires in wealth, ambition and business style, but differs in one crucial aspect - he is not Russian,” the agency writes.

An article in Bloomberg can be considered a kind of gift to a businessman - June 14, Blavatnik is 65 years old. The Bell wrote about his biography and investments.

10:15 Russian retailers of household appliances and electronics record a decrease in the range. This is especially noticeable in the sector of large household appliances with a large share of European manufacturers - dishwashers, stoves, washing machines, refrigerators. Parallel imports have started, and Turkish and Chinese manufacturers are already taking the place of the conditional Electrolux, sellers reassure. The cost of equipment even assembled in Russia has increased by 10-15%, so you can not expect a fall in prices even with a dollar of 60 rubles.

The main thing in the morning:

• The Russian gaming market is threatened with a new shake-up : the organizers of gambling are invited to ban having beneficiaries from "unfriendly" countries. This will affect at least two prominent players on the market, but not the largest - Fonbet, which recently successfully changed its legal entity after being bought by Mikhail Mishustin's former son-in-law Alexander Udodov. This deal is the subject of an investigation by The Bell.
• Chinese President Xi Jinping instructed advisers to find new forms of economic support for Russia - but in a way that does not violate sanctions, writes The Washington Post. This is a response to Moscow's persistent requests for economic and technological support, but at the same time an indication of the limits of this support. "China will always act in the interests of the Chinese people," the source said. Russia has not asked for military assistance, its sources say.
• Russian oil exports turned gray at lightning speed - they were taken up by companies that no one had ever heard of, but European oil traders practically curtailed their work, writes Energy Intelligence. One of these companies is engaged in deliveries for Rosneft to India.
• Dmitry Medvedev, in an interview with Al Jazeera, did not rule out the possibility of a nuclear war. Russia can use nuclear weapons even in the event of a conventional strike against it, if it "is of such a nature that it threatens the existence of the state itself."
• Experts interviewed by the HSE estimated the long-term effect of sanctions at minus 1 - 1.5 p.p. GDP growth per year. But the incomes of Russians will also lag behind these reduced rates, because labor will become cheaper due to rising costs in the economy. According to Iran's experience, sanctions will increase the wealth stratification within society, and the main damage will not even be blocked access to technologies and resources, but the inability to effectively distribute them.
• The new standard for subsidized electric vehicle charging stations in Russia provides for only one mandatory connector, and it is Chinese - the GB / T standard, learned Kommersant . The other two, including the common European CSS2, are optional. This is the rate of officials on future localization and Chinese imports, now even Chinese electric cars are going to Russia with a European port.

Continued online June 3

20:23 FAS has approved a deal to buy the Russian business of McDonald's by Club-Hotel, which is owned by businessman Alexander Govor. The seller can buy the business back on market terms within 15 years.

19:45 Stab in the back from OPEC

At the monthly meeting in Vienna, the OPEC+ organization made a sensational decision - contrary to all expectations , exporters decided to accelerate production growth by one and a half times in July-August 2022. The planned increase was to be 432,000 barrels per day (b / d) - and by the end of the meeting, it will rise to 648,000.

Today's decision paves the way for an even greater increase in production, according to Energy Intel. And in December, the deal, under which the OPEC+ countries agreed to drastically cut production in the spring of 2020 at the height of the pandemic, will expire altogether.

“Undoubtedly, this is the right decision that will help balance the market and ensure a balance of supply and demand,” said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak following the meeting.

But in fact, all this will only bring problems to Russia. We will not be able to make money on meeting the growing demand - Russia already produces much less than our quota under the OPEC + agreement, and the EU oil embargo will hit Russian production even more. At the same time, an accelerated increase in OPEC production could unleash a rise in prices, which allows Moscow to continue earning record oil windfalls despite sanctions.

“The decision, of course, should have a downward effect on prices, but everything will depend on how much production in OPEC actually increases,” Marcel Salikhov, director of economics at the HSE Institute of Energy and Finance, told The Bell. On the first unofficial news about the OPEC + decision, oil fell by $4, but after the ministerial meeting it recovered to $117 per barrel of Brent.

The only OPEC+ member that can boost production quickly and much is cartel leader Saudi Arabia. And today's decision on her part is a step towards the United States, which has been persuading Riyadh to produce more oil since March in order to slow down the rise in prices. After the EU announced an oil embargo against Russia, a barrel of Brent went up to $125, and a real fuel crisis threatens Europe and the United States. The White House said in the evening that they "welcome the decision" and highly appreciate the role of Saudi Arabia in its adoption.

Relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States, which deteriorated catastrophically after the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, have begun to thaw since this spring. In July, Joe Biden will tour the Middle East, during which he may meet in Riyadh with the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

19:16 The government will capitalize three Russian airlines by 17 billion rubles at the expense of the National Welfare Fund. More than 13.7 billion rubles will be allocated for the bonds of the Siberia carrier, almost 3 billion for the bonds of Ural Airlines, and about 366 million rubles for the papers of Aurora.

18:09 In the sixth EU sanctions list, in addition to Sberbank, there are two more banks disconnected from SWIFT - Rosselkhozbank and MKB.

17:22 The United States has expanded the list of blocking sanctions (SDN list) on Russia. It included among others:

• Alexei Mordashov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Severstal, with family members;
• Severstal itself;
• Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Grigorenko;
• Ministers of Transport Vitaly Savelyev and Ministers of Economy Maxim Reshetnikov;
• Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova;
• Head of Vnesheconombank Sergey Gorkov;
• Developer, "king of Russian real estate" God Nisanov;
• Musician, friend of Vladimir Putin Sergey Roldugin.

As well as two yachts - Graceful and Olympia - according to OFAC, associated with Vladimir Putin.

16:40 EU leaders today still approved the sixth package of sanctions, including the oil embargo against Russia. Hungary resisted him to the last - and the sanctions against Patriarch Kirill were excluded from the package.

15:20 At the just-begun meeting of OPEC+ ministers, a decision may be made to increase quotas not by 432,000 bpd per month, but by 500,000-700,000 bpd in July and August. In this case, at the same time, the 2020 deal on limiting production will also de facto end, and its participants will be able to agree on new quotas that some countries do not choose.

On the one hand, Russia, whose production is falling due to sanctions (and whose quota is now equal to that of Saudi Arabia), should be left in OPEC+. On the other hand, today the Western media wrote that Saudi Arabia is ready to increase production if the Russian one drops significantly.

14:53 Analysts polled by the Central Bank in May have improved the median forecast of the main indicators of the Russian economy for the year compared to the April forecast. They expect inflation of 17% (in April - 22%), a rate of 11.1% (14.5%), a fall in GDP by 7.5% (9.2%) and a dollar at 75 rubles (85). The spread of forecasts remains unprecedentedly large: for GDP from minus 3.5% to minus 12%, for the dollar - from 67 to 90 rubles.

14:38 Roskomnadzor did not directly respond to Interfax's request to block the popular Proton VPN. But he recalled that he restricts all services in Russia that allow you to bypass blocking. The blocking was felt by Russian users of the service, and today Proton itself confirmed it, promising to continue trying to get around it.

12:52 On the termination of work with users from Russia, the free image service Pixabay and the large freelance exchange Upwork announced. The latter banned access to accounts from Russia, but promises to open them when a freelancer moves to another country.

11:58 Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel made her second statement on Ukraine since the beginning of the "special operation" (in the first, on February 25, she called what is happening "the most important turning point in the history of Europe since the Cold War").

She said she would not give advice to the current government, but supported its efforts (as well as the G7 and the US) to "end this barbaric war" and spoke of solidarity with Ukraine, which has the right to self-defense. “A ray of hope in a bottomless sea of ​​grief,” she called the unconditional support of Ukraine by neighboring countries.

11:18 There are disagreements in the US administration regarding the further direction of sanctions against Russia, writes Bloomberg. The bloc, represented by State Department and White House officials, is in favor of expanding the use of secondary sanctions, counting on the understanding of allies. The "economic" bloc, headed by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, supports the tactic of putting pressure on the price of Russian exports. According to the agency's experts, the sanctions have already reached the limit, when further tightening will disproportionately affect the global economy.

10:57 The Ministry of Finance suggested that those dissatisfied with non-payment of interest for late payment on Eurobonds write to the post office, promising to consider all applications on an individual basis. At the same time, the ministry terminated the agency agreement with Citibank: it considers the intermediary to be guilty of the delay.

We are talking about the issue of bonds "Russia-2022" with a maturity date of April 4, the funds for which were brought to investors only at the end of the 30-day grace period, in early May. The Ministry of Finance did not transfer $1.9 million percent to them for the specified period, which the day before served as a pretext for declaring a “non-payment event”, equivalent to a default for the purposes of payments on credit default swaps (CDS).

09:14 The secure mail and VPN service Proton Mail reported problems connecting to its VPN in Russia. “It is likely that local ISPs and authorities are interfering with VPN connections, in which case we will not be able to resolve such issues. Some servers may continue to work. We continue to try to bypass the lock, ”the company writes.

This week, specialized publications wrote about problems with VPN protocols in Russian regions. Industry participants have linked them to Roskomnadzor's block testing. The department has already blocked at least 20 popular services that allow you to view content prohibited in Russia.

8:50 Brent oil quotes significantly (to $114 from $118) fell on the apparent warming of relations between the US and Saudi Arabia.

Thursday night brought news that Saudi Arabia is ready to increase production if Russia cuts it significantly, and that may visit US President Joe Biden the kingdom. There, it will be difficult for Biden to avoid meeting with the de facto head of state, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, whom the United States and the president personally considers directly involved in the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Gasoline in the US is no longer cheaper than $ 4 per gallon (fuel has almost doubled in price in a year), and pressure on Biden to normalize relations with the Saudis is growing, Bloomberg notes. So far, calls to increase production have gone unanswered.

8:37 The main thing for the night and morning:

— COO of Meta (recognized as extremist in Russia) Sheryl Sandberg resigned after 14 years with the company. The founder and CEO of the corporation, Mark Zuckerberg, called her departure "the end of an era." “My good friend and partner Sheryl Sandberg is stepping down as COO of Meta,” he wrote. Sandberg said she wants to spend more time with her family and charities. She will hand over her powers in the fall and remain on the board of directors of the company. About the role of Sandberg in Facebook (banned in Russia), the reasons for her departure and what is happening now in Meta, there will be today's morning newsletter.

- In Russia, the production of sweets is declining. In the first four months of the year, it decreased by 3.4%, to 1.2 million tons compared to the same period last year, reports Kommersant with reference to the presentation of the Ministry of Agriculture. Sweets turned out to be the only category among the main food products, where a decrease in output is recorded. One of the reasons for the decline in production is a decrease in supplies to foreign markets. The source of the publication said that the export of confectionery products from Russia in January-April decreased by 40 thousand tons year-on-year.

Saudi Arabia is ready to increase oil production if Russian production drops significantly due to Western sanctions imposed on it, the Financial Times writes , citing sources. They say Riyadh understands that the market is overloaded and oil prices are too high, but also believes that "there is no real shortage [of oil in the market] yet." FT interlocutors also spoke of some improvement in relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States, although they still remain tense. Earlier, the WSJ reported that OPEC was considering the possibility of excluding Russia from the oil production deal. Why this seems unlikely so far, we have explained here .

- Joe Biden suggested that an alternative to an embargo on Russian oil could be its purchases at reduced prices. According to him, such a possibility is being discussed with allies in Europe. “We have a problem now – Europe deciding to further cut back on Russian oil purchases. There are many considerations that can be made - perhaps even continue to buy oil, but at a limited price, ”Biden said. He noted that Russia is now in a situation where it is forced to sell oil at low prices.

- SPIEF participants asked the organizers to hide some information about themselves: they do not want their place of work to be indicated on their badges, found out RBC . Sources of the publication said that even the option of not indicating any information on the badges was discussed, but Roscongress denied the existence of such a possibility, stating that the badge is mandatory for all forum participants. Such requests come from participants due to their fear of being sanctioned due to their participation in SPIEF. For the same reason, some companies pay for participation in the forum not directly at Roscongress, but through intermediaries.

- Russian companies are preparing to make spare parts for foreign aircraft: in April-May, the Federal Air Transport Agency issued certificates for the developer of aircraft equipment to five companies, reports Vedomosti , citing sources. They were received by the State Research Institute of Civil Aviation, S7 Technics, the Ural Civil Aviation Plant, Aviation Engineering Solutions and the Navigator Institute of Aviation Instrumentation. But so far, we are mainly talking about the production of interior parts, armchairs or kitchen equipment, the newspaper notes.

Continued online June 2

19:51 Russia's GDP in April decreased year-on-year by 3% "against the backdrop of unprecedented sanctions pressure," the Economic Development Ministry said today. The main factors behind the economic slowdown are transport and logistics restrictions and a reduction in domestic demand. But budget revenues grew at a faster pace due to expensive oil and gas.

19:06 Weekly inflation in Russia for the week by May 27 turned out to be zero, Rosstat reported today. The previous week saw a symbolic - 0.02% - deflation. Deflationary risks in the event of a contraction in demand became one of the reasons for the lowering of the Central Bank's rate.

Since the beginning of May, consumer prices have risen by 0.13%, and by 11.82% since the beginning of the year. Annual inflation slowed down to 17.35% from 17.51%.

18:32 "Yandex" has agreed with the holders of convertible bonds on a new extension of the term for requiring early redemption of securities - now until July 6.

After the freeze in early March of trading in shares of Russian companies in the United States, Yandex warned investors about the risk of default: if trading stops for more than five days, holders of all bonds issued by the company can demand redemption. This means that the company may need about $ 1.25 billion at a time, which it does not have.

Investors formed a committee with which negotiations began. In a new message, Yandex indicates that they have made significant progress, but does not provide details. We talked more about what is happening in the company here .

18:20 The CDS Determination Committee ruled that Russia's default events occurred on May 19 and 26.

The fact that the absence of payments on government bonds in dollars would mean default, the committee announced back in April. This activates the beginning of the auction process, which results in payments from sellers to buyers of swaps, which, in essence, represent default insurance.

15:45 Refiners of Russian oil are one step ahead of the sanctions - they manage to successfully hide the origin of oil products and sell them even in the United States, writes The Wall Street Journal. The tanker, chartered by the Indian petrochemical giant Reliance, left the Indian oil port of Sikka with a cargo of alkyl gasoline on April 21 without specifying a destination port, and successfully unloaded in New York on May 22. According to experts of the publication, Russian oil was used for processing.

The US embargo on Russian oil and oil products came into effect in March. But since OFAC itself determines the origin of 25% or more of the cargo, this allows mixing Russian oil during processing. The very fact that companies dealing with Russian oil now have to resort to loopholes, as with Iranian and Venezuelan oil, shows that sanctions are working, the newspaper notes.

15:19 Deutsche Bank left the consensus, predicting one of the ECB rate hikes in July or September not by 0.25 percentage points, but by 0.5 percentage points. Thus, the deposit rate in the EU will become positive - 0.25%. The bank proceeds from the assumption that the "hawks" in the ECB will be able to prove the need for decisive action with inflation above 8% . Today, Austrian Central Bank Chairman Robert Holtzmann called for a 0.5 percentage point hike in the rate. already in July or risk an uncontrolled rise in inflation expectations.

These are the last statements before the "period of silence" before the ECB meeting on June 9th. The euro reacted to them with a slight but noticeable strengthening against the dollar.

14:39 The new owner of McDonald's Russian assets, Alexander Govor, did not disclose the new name of the network in an interview with Forbes, but said that franchisees must renegotiate contracts, remove signs and get rid of all references to the former brand - down to napkins - two weeks before mid-June .

“The name of the new brand has not yet been finalized and will be announced before mid-June,” said Govor. "We will not be able to use logos that replicate the golden arches, and the new brand name must not directly refer to the McDonald's brand."

Alexander Govor, the ex-co-owner of Yuzhkuzbassugol, an oilman and hotelier, has a rich biography, which told about. The Bell

13:59 Central Bank employees were strongly advised not to travel to Europe, the United States and other "unfriendly countries", found out . The Bell

“Given the current geopolitical situation in the world, the possible realization of a threat to the security of citizens of the Russian Federation when they are abroad, as well as the presence of potential risks associated with their return, we strongly recommend that Bank of Russia employees refrain from traveling to countries included in the list of unfriendly countries until further notice . ", - says the letter signed by deputy chairmen Ruslan Vesterovsky (supervises personnel) and German Zubarev (security service). The Central Bank was unable to promptly comment on the letter.

There is no talk of a direct ban in the letter - the document is advisory in nature. But the employees of the Central Bank are allowed to get acquainted with it against signature. In total, almost 50 thousand people worked at the Central Bank at the end of 2021. The list of "unfriendly countries" includes all EU countries (as well as Great Britain, Switzerland, Montenegro, Albania and others), the USA, Canada, Japan and others - a total of 48 countries.

13:16 US President Joe Biden decided to supply Ukraine with advanced multiple launch rocket systems (probably M142 Himars), but without ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 km, writes Bloomberg. In addition, the Ukrainian authorities guaranteed that they would not use complexes on Russian territory. The supplies are likely to be part of a new $700 million military aid package to be announced today.

"Standard" M30/31 missiles have a range of about 60 km, but they are highly accurate and can be equipped with cluster anti-tank warheads, allowing them to "cover" entire groups of armored vehicles. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that any supply of weapons to Ukraine, no matter how Washington argues them, increases the risk of a direct clash between Russia and the United States.

12:34 American Freedom Holding, which includes the Freedom Finance investment company, will sell the Russian division to its founder Timur Turlov. In the future, it is planned that these assets will be transferred to the top management of the company. “This is done so that the Russian company can continue to independently conduct business in Russia,” Turlov said. Freedom Finance had about 163,000 clients at the end of March. Read more about the parameters of the transaction in our news .

12:12 The issue of confiscating Russian assets and sending them to restore Ukraine caused controversy in the US presidential administration, writes The New York Times:

• some officials, including Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, say the confiscation is illegal and could damage the US reputation as a safe and secure custodian of investments;
• others fear that if talks between Ukraine and Russia resume, the US will not be able to offer Moscow substantial sanctions relief if Russia's international reserves are spent.

Last week, a European official said that about $100 billion worth of Russian reserves were frozen in the United States, and about €23 billion in the European Union.

9:41 Graphic design service Canva leaves Russia, writes The Sydney Morning Herald. Australia's most successful private tech company made the decision due to pressure from the Australian-Ukrainian tech community and negotiations with the Ukrainian embassy, ​​the paper said. Since March 1, Canva has suspended accepting payments from Russia, but has retained a free service for Russian users. Now the company has decided to completely withdraw from Russia for an indefinite period. The decision will affect about 1.4 million users.

8:55 Highlights for the night and morning:

— Some members of OPEC are considering removing Russia from the OPEC + deal, as it is no longer able to increase oil production due to sanctions, the WSJ reports , citing sources. There are no clear preconditions for this, however, so far. last week Saudi Arabia's energy minister said that Russia would be part of a new OPEC+ deal. Reuters sources say that the OPEC+ countries intend to stick to the previous conditions for increasing production. Sergei Lavrov met yesterday with his Saudi counterpart, and following the meeting, the Foreign Ministry said that the parties "highly appreciated the level of interaction in the OPEC + format." In addition, the increase in production by OPEC countries, bypassing Russia, is something that the US has long been asking for, but Saudi Arabia, which has a bad relationship with Washington, has previously refused. And other countries that fell under sanctions, for example, Iran and Venezuela, were not excluded from OPEC because of this. However, while Russia's removal from OPEC+ still looks unlikely, oil prices, which jumped after the announcement of the oil embargo, to WSJ news have fallen .

- The owners of airports have applied to the authorities for permission to open duty free shops for passengers of domestic flights, told Vitaly Vantsev, co-owner and chairman of the board of directors of Vnukovo, RBC. According to him, such a measure will give airports the opportunity to increase revenue amid falling international traffic. The proposal is being considered in the office of First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov.

— Another bad news about oil. The UK has agreed with the European Union to ban the insurance of ships carrying Russian oil, writes the Financial Times. An agreed and coordinated ban would cut Russia off from the largest insurance market, Lloyd's of London, and drastically limit its ability to export oil by sea, the newspaper notes.

— Filling stations under the Shell brand are resuming work in Moscow after their purchase by Lukoil, TASS reports . Several gas stations in Moscow are operating as usual: fuel is being sold, shops are open. However, the Shell loyalty program does not work. Several gas stations told the agency that they would continue operating under the Shell brand at least until the end of the year, and another said they planned to rebrand within a month. Gas stations were suspended for the duration of the transaction for their purchase by Lukoil.

- The Central Bank wants to give access to the mobile number verification system not only to Rosfinmonitoring, banks and payment system operators, but also to security forces, credit history bureaus, telecom operators and collectors, learned Kommersant . According to the publication, this is stated in the revised version of the bill on the creation of a unified information system for checking information about subscribers of telecom operators.

- Another non-obvious consequence of the sanctions: Russian waste disposal operators will have to replace almost 4,000 foreign garbage trucks, writes RBC. Over five years, this will require more than 36 billion rubles, estimated in the REO. The supply of such machines to Russia and spare parts for them stopped due to Western restrictions and the departure of a number of companies.

Continued online June 1

21:53 Some OPEC countries are considering the possibility of suspending Russia's participation in an oil production deal, reports The Wall Street Journal, citing the organization's delegates. The reason is that European sanctions and partial embargoes are "starting to undermine Moscow's ability to produce more oil." Excluding Russia could allow Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other OPEC countries to increase their crude oil production, as the US and Europe are calling for amid rising commodity prices.

20:38 Brussels intends to propose the introduction of duties on the import of Russian oil if Hungary and other EU countries fail to agree on the timing of the rejection of pipeline oil, according to the Financial Times. Such a step is associated with the lack of a deadline for deliveries through Druzhba. It is assumed that under such conditions, Moscow will be forced to sell its oil at a discount or the EU countries to pay more. The introduction of duties will not require the consent of all participants in the bloc - a qualified majority is enough, the FT notes.

19:11 The European Union intends to introduce a ban on insurance of tankers carrying Russian oil as part of the sixth package of sanctions, The Wall Street Journal reports , citing European officials and diplomats. Oil traders and shipowners interviewed by the newspaper consider this measure to be one of the most serious financial instruments of pressure on the Russian economy that the bloc has at its disposal. Few companies are willing to deal with uninsured tankers, and 10 years ago, the same ban on Iran proved effective in the context of efforts to force Tehran to negotiate a nuclear program, the newspaper writes.

18:05 Following the Dutch GasTerra BV and the Danish Ørsted , the British energy company Shell Energy Europe refused to pay for gas in rubles. Deliveries under the contract for Germany will be suspended from June 1.

17:52 The Central Bank is discussing the return of foreign investors to the Moscow Exchange. What does this mean for the market?

The Central Bank does not exclude the admission of foreigners to the Moscow Exchange on different conditions, Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, told reporters today. According to her, there may be different conditions for investors from friendly and unfriendly countries. Non-residents have been excommunicated from the Moscow Exchange for three months already - since February 28.

Talks about opening separate auctions for foreigners on the Moscow Exchange have been going on since mid-March . On May 20, Interfax, citing market participants , wrote that the Moscow Exchange plans to launch a separate trading mode for non-residents at the end of June from the end of June. It was assumed that foreigners would enter into transactions with each other, for rubles, and would not be able to withdraw money abroad. Brokers are already preparing appropriate IT solutions. Russian investors will not be there - this is necessary to avoid arbitrage (when, due to market inefficiency, it is possible to obtain profitability without risk by buying securities cheaper and selling them more expensive).

What do I get from this?

The exit of non-residents, especially from unfriendly countries, in theory, could bring down the value of assets. For example, in December 2021, 44% of Sberbank shares were owned by non-residents. They also owned 17.8% of OFZs as of early March 2022. The division of the market into two sections (for non-residents and residents), as well as a ban on withdrawing money abroad, should protect private investors from reducing the value of their assets.

In addition, any measures related to concessions for foreign investors may contribute to the fact that in the future, when and if the Russian market reopens for them, non-residents will return to it faster. They will not be able to withdraw money now, but at least they will be able to sell shares of sanctioned companies. In general, the history of defaults in Russia and other countries teaches that the memory of investors is short.

16:53 The shareholders of Lukoil prematurely terminated the powers of the founder of the company, Vagit Alekperov, who headed it for almost 30 years. Vadim Vorobyov was appointed as the new president, his candidacy was supported by 99.25% of the shareholders.

16:02 What else did Yudaeva say at the press conference:

• The Central Bank does not plan to ease restrictions on the purchase of cash currency by individuals until September;
• the use of cryptocurrencies within Russia carries risks, but the Central Bank is not against their use in the international infrastructure;
• the economy needs to rebuild, look for new logistics chains for replenishment of stocks, new suppliers;
• there are no plans to introduce negative rates on foreign currency deposits for individuals;
• specific proposals for additional capitalization of banks will be closer to the end of the year.

15:51 The Central Bank considers relevant its current forecast for a decline in exports in the context of the EU embargo on 90% of Russian oil. This was stated by the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Ksenia Yudaeva, answering the question of The Bell.

Yulia Starostina correspondent of The Bell “The European Commission agreed on the parameters of the oil embargo last night. In your opinion, what effect will this have on the Russian economy? What financial stability risks do you see in connection with the announced parameters of the oil embargo?”

Ksenia Yudaeva Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank “The announcement [of the embargo] was made only today, but the discussion has been going on for quite some time. When we were developing the forecast for the previous rate decision, discussions had already begun. And we have included in our forecasts a rather conservative trajectory of what will happen to exports. We have assumed that exports will drop significantly. Therefore, we believe that the forecast remains relevant in terms of assessing the situation in the economy and in the new conditions.”

According to the baseline scenario of the Central Bank, the reduction in exports of goods and services in real terms can reach 17–21% in 2022, both due to the oil and gas and non-oil and gas sectors. In 2023, exports will continue to decline (by 4–8%), but by the end of the forecast horizon, as trade flows are reoriented, the decline will stop and a slight increase is possible (by 1% in 2024). In value terms, the volume of exports this year may decrease by 8% - the reduction in physical volumes will be largely offset by rising prices.

We talked about the parameters of the oil embargo in today's morning newsletter .

15:08 Russian banks will have a legislative opportunity to introduce negative rates on foreign currency deposits - so far only for legal entities. Frank Media about this told State Duma deputy Anatoly Aksakov . He explained the initiative by the need to "stimulate the use of the ruble by Russian business and continue the course towards de-dollarization."

No changes are planned for individuals, rates on foreign currency deposits for citizens will be regulated by the market, Aksakov noted. Who will introduce the bill, he found it difficult to answer.

The share of foreign currency deposits in companies, as follows from the latest available Central Bank statistics for January, was 31.2%. In the population it is much lower - only 20.6%. Back in 2019, the Central Bank thought about the possibility of introducing negative rates on foreign currency deposits, but noted that this “requires a significant change in legislation.”

UPD: Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Ksenia Yudaeva at a press conference that the possibility of introducing negative rates on foreign currency deposits for legal entities is being considered. confirmed

13:06 SPB The stock exchange has published a list of foreign securities, the trading of which on Russian floors is partially blocked by the decision of the Central Bank. We are talking about foreign securities that have passed the primary listing on the US stock exchanges, the platform says .

There are 990 items on the list, including Amazon, Alphabet (Google's parent company), Alibaba, eBay, Netflix, NVIDIA and Twitter. In relation to these shares, “a ban is established on the filing of orders and the conclusion of contracts based on these orders” in the modes of negotiated transactions, targeted and non-addressed REPOs with the Central Counterparty on May 31 and June 1. In addition, the exchange indicated the transaction settlement codes. The exception will be companies with business in Russia: HeadHunter, Yandex, Ozon, Cian PLC. Also, the ban will not affect securities listed on other exchanges, in particular, TCS Group and Fix Price.

According to Viktor Tunev, Chief Analyst at Ingosstrakh Investments, the restrictions will affect the majority of SPB Exchange clients. “If we take the first top 100 positions in investor portfolios on the SPB100 index, then 72 positions are on the list for restrictions. Their share in the top 100 positions is about 64%,” he told Frank Media. Tesla, Apple and Microsoft, he said, are not subject to restrictions.

12:56 IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told Spiegel that he believes the current energy crisis is much more serious than the oil shocks of the 1970s, and is confident that it will last longer. By mid-summer, he sees problems in the European motor fuel market - diesel fuel, jet fuel and gasoline.

12:18 statistics May eurozone inflation :

• In annual terms, growth to 8.1% from 7.4% in April, in monthly terms - up to 0.8% from 0.6%;
• In terms of annual indicators, the maximum is in the Baltic countries: Estonia (20.1%), Lithuania (18.5%), Latvia (16.4%);
• Above 10% inflation in the Netherlands (10.2%), Greece (10.7%) and Slovakia (11.8%). In Belgium - 9.9%;
• The lowest annual rates are in France and Malta (5.8% and 5.6%), but for France this is still a record.
• The nature of inflation is energetic - prices increased by 39.2% year-on-year. In second place, by a wide margin, are food products (7.5%).

12:00 Anastasia Tatulova wrote an application for release from her duties as a business ombudsman back in April and will resign in the near future, told she Forbes. She explained this by saying that she disagreed with the state on what needs to be done, she was tired of solving entrepreneurs' issues manually and faced pressure on herself and her family.

AnderSon, Tatulova's cafe chain, ended March with near-zero numbers, with the factory's profit down 65%, she said . “From my point of view, now we need systemic long-term changes instead of measures, we need an honest assessment of the situation instead of presentations and speeches with figures taken from the ceiling. And we need solutions based on real problems,” Tatulova told Forbes.

In a recent piece for The Bell, Tatulova outlined seven reasons why businesses don't get on well with the government and what to do about it.

11:14 Following Germany (8.7% in annual terms), record inflation was recorded in France - 5.8% - also due to the sharp rise in energy prices. Concerns about stagflation were added by the revised estimate of the quarterly dynamics of France's GDP in the first quarter - minus 0.2% compared to 0%. Today, inflation statistics in the eurozone should be released, and it will not be comforting, writes Bloomberg: most likely, a record will be set for the entire time since the introduction of the single currency.

10:54 The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, admitted that the conflict in Ukraine demonstrated to the EU the need for military force and the insufficiency of only “soft power”.

10:32 The Central Bank's reporting on mortgage lending for April reflected a real market crash, writes the MMI Telegram channel.

• The number of transactions in comparison with March decreased by more than three times (to 49 thousand), compared with "pre-war" February - by half;
• In monetary terms, mortgages shrank to 162 billion rubles in April from 521 billion rubles in March;
• The average rate on loans issued fell in April from 8.05% to 7.64%, which means a halt in mortgage lending, except for preferential loans;
• In May, mortgages revived a little, and at the end of the year, experts do not expect a catastrophe - but mainly because they expect government support for the sector, "as long as there is money in the budget."

09:55 "Gazprom" today completely stopped gas supplies to the Dutch Gasterra due to non-payment in rubles. Thus, the introduction of a new payment scheme led to the refusal of Russian gas from five EU countries (Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Denmark, the Netherlands), which reduced the contract portfolio of Gazprom by about 26.5 billion cubic meters per year, or 13%. Holland and Denmark seem to be the last European buyers to refuse Gazprom supplies: the transition to the ruble payment system ends on June 1.

The main thing in the morning:

• EU leaders still agreed on an embargo that will affect 90% of Russian oil exports to Europe. In the short term, Russia may even benefit from high oil prices (it has already jumped to its March peaks), but then it will face a decline in production and the dictates of buyers from Asia.
• The biometrics of clients, which banks collected on their own, are ordered to be transferred to the Unified Biometric System (EBS), found out Kommersant . This looks like a directive victory of the Central Bank over Sberbank, which has the most complete biometric database of Russians. It is not entirely clear why this is in the context of an acute shortage of server capacity, but it is possible that the authorities believe that they can better protect the sensitive data of Russians. It is also possible to accelerate the introduction of biometrics in public services.
• Sberbank excluded the approximate rate on consumer loans from mailings, noted RBC . The bank explained this by "the dynamics of changes in the key rate and forecasts for its further reduction." Several Russian banks are already doing this so as not to confuse customers at the time of concluding a loan agreement, but the country's main bank has still given a benchmark rate.

Continued online May 31

21:25 In addition to the oil embargo, the EU could not agree on another sanctions restriction: the ban on the purchase of real estate by Russians in Europe was removed from the sixth package due to the objections of Cyprus, reports Bloomberg.

21:21 Ozon, as previously warned, failed to pay bondholders who exercised the right to demand their early redemption. We are talking about convertible bonds worth $750 million maturing in 2026, which were placed last year on NASDAQ. According to the terms of the offering, the holders of securities may demand their early redemption if trading in the company's shares is suspended for seven days or more. What happened, after which a significant part of the bondholders exercised the right to demand redemption, notes Frank Media.

Payment was due by May 31st. But “due to capital control and protection measures and other regulatory restrictions, the company is unable to transfer the required amount from Ozon’s Russian structures to Ozon Holdings PLC,” the company said in a statement . Ozon has entered into negotiations with bondholders and is asking them for a moratorium to give the parties time to agree on a long-term restructuring. But whether they will go for it remains to be seen.

On Friday, the company reported for the first quarter. Its turnover, the number of active buyers, the number of orders, and revenue are growing. Spends Ozon also at a faster pace. But due to regulatory restrictions and difficulties with the transfer of money on June 14, the company may default on bonds and cross-default on other obligations. Ozon emphasizes that a default is a formal event and does not mean that the company is insolvent. We told in more detail in our technical mailing list .

21:08 Valentin Yumashev, Boris Yeltsin's son-in-law, resigned from his post as adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin in April, Reuters reports citing sources. The Yeltsin Center confirmed the information to the agency, noting that it was Yumashev's initiative. The Kremlin did not respond to a request from journalists.

17:48 The Dutch gas distribution company Gasterra (owned by Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil and the state) refused to pay for Russian gas through rubles due to unacceptable financial and operational risks. Gazprom will stop deliveries from May 31. Until recently, Gazprom supplied Gasterra with about 4 billion cubic meters. m of gas per year or 2.5% of its exports to the EU.

17:30 The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen , said that she did not expect an agreement on the oil embargo against Russia at the EU summit on May 30-31.

“I don’t have high expectations that everything will be decided in the next 48 hours, but I am sure that such an opportunity will appear later,” she said. That doesn't mean there's no progress, Leyen said: in fact, the only unresolved issue is how to level the playing field for economies that continue to get pipeline oil from Russia and those that lose Russian tanker supplies.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (who achieved the exclusion of the Druzhba oil pipeline from sanctions) confirmed that there was no agreement, and blamed the European Commission for this.

16:26 US President Joe Biden said that the United States will not supply Ukraine with systems capable of hitting targets deep in Russian territory (“reach into Russia”). The statement follows reports from the Ukrainian press about deliveries of M31 GMLRS multiple launch rocket systems to Ukraine. What Biden said means that at least Ukraine will not receive ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 km to these systems. However, "standard" missiles are capable of hitting targets at a distance of 60 km with high accuracy.

16:06 In Germany, a record May inflation - 8.7% in annual terms, analysts expected 8.1%. The data came out 10 days before a key meeting of the ECB, the outcome of which should be the first rate increase in a decade and curtailment of the asset purchase program. The main driver of inflation in the EU's largest economy is food and energy.

15:27 Petr Aven and Mikhail Fridman filed lawsuits in connection with the EU sanctions imposed against them. Both businessmen gave heartfelt interviews to leading Western media - Bloomberg Friedman (“Everything we built for 30 years is completely destroyed”), and Aven - FT (“I don’t know how to live. I really don’t know”). Bloomberg reported that in the UK, Aven was checked on suspicion of violating the sanctions regime.

15:05 Europe plans to abandon Russian gas in five years through the development of alternative energy, but this does not mean that environmentalists have somehow relaxed their demands. On the contrary, the gap between environmental policy and energy policy is greater than ever, writes WSJ. The approval process for a wind farm can easily take those same five years, and now the European authorities are trying to reduce the period to a year, at least in the allocated zones.

What power engineers face is shown by the example of a wind farm upgrade project in northwestern Germany. Six years of struggle culminated in a resolution: wind turbines can be changed, but they can only work at night from March to October and turn off when special cameras detect the approach of a threatened bird species - the red kite.

14:40 Following Poland, Bulgaria and Finland, refuses Denmark Russian gas - the operator Orsted said that he was not going to switch to payments in rubles. The deadline is Tuesday May 31st. Denmark imports some Russian gas - about 1.3% of total EU imports from Russia - and Örsted will easily find a replacement in the market. But one way or another, this is minus another long-term contract for Gazprom.

14:11 The Kremlin once again stated that "there can be no objective reasons for a default." Whether investors will now accept the Finance Ministry's scheme with two accounts and the conversion of rubles paid under state bonds depends on negotiations with them, said Dmitry Peskov. But the government approves of it, and a similar scheme for paying for gas is quite convenient, he believes.

Why changing the payment currency still means default, and with what arguments in favor of the opposite Russia can go to court, we analyzed here .

12:34 Parallel imports have been legalized in Russia since March, and in early May, the government issued a list of goods that can now be imported into the country through parallel imports, that is, without the permission of the copyright holder. We spoke to several insiders in the electronics market about whether parallel imports could help avoid shortages. Here's what they say:

• Most of the goods that do not currently enter Russia are not limited by sanctions. Suppliers themselves refuse to work - some are “out of ideological messages”, others are afraid of secondary sanctions.
• For the largest manufacturers, Russia was a priority market: we were among the three largest markets in European countries, we were smaller than Germany, but there were more than France and England. Russian consumers are used to the fact that when Samsung announces the release of a device, it almost simultaneously appears in world capitals and in some Russian regional city. This was possible because the chains worked directly with the manufacturer, planned purchases with them, and specially allocated production for them. Now it's time to wean.
• In Russia, 30 million smartphones are sold per year, and parallel imports will not be able to compensate for such volumes. There is no such distribution market where you can come and buy 30 million smartphones for the Russian market. Big business "cannot run around the world market and buy smartphones here and there, it can only work systematically."
• In addition to legalizing parallel imports in Russia, other countries should also legalize parallel exports. For example, when you bring iPhones from China, Chinese customs checks to see if you have permission to do so. And now China has begun to follow these things more closely.
• As a result, we will get a narrowing of the range and a decrease in the quality of service. In addition, it is likely that we will receive devices a generation later, just as it was in the 2000s, new releases will arrive massively for six months or a year - that is, we are literally waiting for a rollback almost at the time of Gorbushka.
• Prices for the iPhone and other gadgets will, of course, also increase with the start of parallel imports. The usual warranty service from the manufacturer will not be.

more about what awaits the Russian electronics market during the times of parallel imports Read in our technical newsletter. You can subscribe here .

12:27 This year, Russia was not invited to Davos - the forum froze contacts with the country back in March. But Russia was present invisibly - the main topics of the forum last week were war, rising inflation, energy security and food shortages.

11:56 The Italian Visa Application Center reported that it had resumed work as usual. Earlier, due to the order of the Central Bank, the center temporarily lost the ability to make payments for consular fees through Intesa Bank.

10:56 On Monday morning, the ruble won back Friday's losses: the dollar fell from 67 to 64 rubles, the euro from 71 to 66 rubles. It did not return to the levels before the CBR rate cut on Thursday, but so far it is working out the forecasts of a relatively mild weakening.

10:22 The Kherson region, which is under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, has begun exporting grain from the last harvest to Russia, said the deputy head of the military-civilian administration of the region, Kirill Stremousov. There is no doubt that the Ukrainian side will not leave this unattended at a time when the West accuses Russia of blocking Ukrainian exports and “blackmailing by hunger”, and President Zelensky of stealing grain.

The main thing for the night and morning:

• investors did not reach A new 30-day countdown to Russia's default has begun: on Friday, May 27 , coupon payments on Eurobonds in dollars . A month ago, the Ministry of Finance was able to pay in foreign currency, but now the United States has blocked this possibility. Anton Siluanov offered investors a variant of settlements in rubles, essentially similar to the scheme of settlements of the EU countries for gas, but so far it looks like a default will be announced anyway.
• The European Union is entering today's Brussels summit without an agreement on an oil embargo against Russia, write Western media . Hungary has not even approved a substantially “diluted” package of sanctions without restrictions on oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline, on which the landlocked country is critically dependent. It's not just about her: now the countries of Western Europe do not like that Poland and Germany will retain the unfair advantage of access to Druzhba. European officials are trying to present this as a technical disagreement that can be settled in days, but the fact that no compromise was reached a month of negotiations before is already casting a shadow over the entire EU.
• Lukoil Vice President Leonid Fedun spoke at RBC with a proposal to reduce oil production in Russia by 20-30% to 7-8 million bpd. In his opinion, it is better to sell seven barrels of oil at $80 than ten barrels at $50, especially since the budget will still get its share. This is not arithmetic, but a strategy, the oilman notes: taking into account the fact that everything is going to permanent discounts on Russian oil, it is better to save reserves for future generations.
• The Kherson region, which is under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, has begun exporting grain from the last harvest to Russia, said Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the military-civilian administration of the region. There is no doubt that the Ukrainian side will not leave this unattended at a time when the West accuses Russia of blocking Ukrainian exports and “blackmailing by hunger”, and President Zelensky of stealing grain.

Online for May 23–29 can be viewed here .