Translated material
Strongman or Madman. As anxiety, fears, disorders and fantasies of Putin form world policy
Vladimir Putin lives in his own world, where the Kyiv Nazis prepare a “dirty bomb”, special Russophobic strains of harmful bacteria are grown in secret biolaboratories, and the population of Donbass suffers from genocide for years. Putin's fear of loss of power, narcissistic narcissism, self -doubt have become important factors in world politics. The Russian leader managed to impose an aggravation game to the whole world, in which the most fearless (or crazy) wins - a player who took on a firm obligation to make any risk for the sake of victory.
Former strong leader
For many years, the English -speaking media called Putin “Strongman” - an autocrat, a strong leader who wants everyone to be afraid and respected him. In 2018 The Time, evaluating the successes of authoritarian regimes in accumulating and retaining power, even proclaimed the beginning of the era of “strong leaders”. The rule of Putin and other autocrats is based on machism, violence, corruption, cynicism, propaganda.
The population often thinks about such leaders as defenders, saviors, sex symbols. The propaganda song “I want like Putin” was popular in Russia for a decade and a half and played a role in the formation of his personality cult. Brutal videos with his participation convinced the voter that Putin is a leader who would help Russia “get up from the knees” and make it great again. Peremptory, sharp and arrogant statements like “Wet in the toilet” showed that Putin is great for this role. This phrase provided to Putin the universal love of the Russians, and after all it was said in September 1999, the day after the bombing of Aviation of the Terrible, the capital of Chechnya. Now Putin does not say that.
Strongman strength is the reverse side of its weakness. Putin should simultaneously maintain the loyalty of the population and the loyalty of the elites, but the solution of these problems often requires opposite steps, emphasizes the professor of Columbia University Timothy Frye in Weak Strongman: The Limits of Power in Putin's Russia . Putin’s authority has institutional limits: the dissatisfaction of the population of the war can undermine plans to recruit a million people to the army to maintain controlled territories and seize new ones, and reducing oil and gas revenues and economic decline will cause the discontent of the elites and complicate the financing of the army.
A short war in Georgia (2008), the capture of Crimea and Donbass (2014), reprisals against the Russian opposition and a cruel war in Ukraine turned Putin from a “strong leader” into a dictator, with manic cruelty of the destructive life of both Ukrainians and Russians.
Does he want his victims to be calculated by millions, and he himself entered the company of bloody dictators like Stalin, Hitler and Mao? Maybe this is the secret dream of a boy from Leningrad,
who survived a difficult childhood, entered the KGB, and in the 1990s made a dizzying career, subtly balancing between the FSB, bandits, oligarchs and the encirclement of Boris Yeltsin?
Vladimir Putin, who has aged over 23 years in the power, no longer seems to be a cheerful “Strongman”. Now this is a tired elderly person who can no longer restrain his irritation and hatred of everyone who will not obey him. He is sure that he is surrounded by enemies, and is no longer bragged from an excess of strength, but from hopelessness, fear, anger and fierce. His speech is more like senile grumbling than a demonstration of power. He incorrectly calculates the forces of his army and sets her tasks, which she cannot fulfill. He is annoyed again and again tries to attack. But this is no longer a prudent attack, as in 2008 or 2014, but just an attempt not to lose.
Fear of losing power
Among the dictators, you can barely find psychologically healthy, positive and balanced people with personal integrity. The dictators are obsessed with the mania of greatness, they are sure that everyone should love them, admire them and/or be afraid of them. They are characterized by narcissistic syndrome, they rarely know how to express their feelings and understand others, with difficulty enter into close trusting relationships, are very vindictive and vindictive. “I think Putin only has human feelings for the dog. I think that no human feelings have any human feelings to any of those around him. A person without human feelings is terrible, ” said Vyacheslav Ivanov in 2012, an outstanding philologist and anthropologist.
Frequent reproaches to the West (debauchery, deceit, expansion of NATO) and Ukraine (fascism go to Europe) can be motivated by Putin by experiencing real and fictitious grievances. Honestly, openly and with respect for the interests of Ukraine collaborated with it, lied Putin in 2021, but Ukraine preferred "in relations with Russia to have all the rights and advantages, but not to carry any obligations" and "from the first steps began to build its statehood on the denial of everything that unites us."
At the basis of brutal cruelty of dictators, there is usually increased anxiety and fears, especially the fear of losing power, passing through humiliation and, as a result, be punished for crimes committed.
The more terror the dictators are used in order to maintain power, the worst it is to lose it.
Putin has long crossed the border , making the impossible “calm wealthy old age” after departure from power.
If by the time the opposition has a chance to remove the dictator from power, he committed not too many crimes, then he can count on peaceful care, gradually going to concessions of the opposition. If there are many crimes, and they are cruel, the dictator has to defend themselves , tightening repressions, because otherwise the inevitable court awaits him. Therefore, the strengthening of the opposition, as was the case in Russia in the 2010s, contributed not to the peaceful transfer of power, but the transformation of Putin’s political regime into dictatorship.
Is Putin's insanity?
The question of Putin’s mental health has repeatedly raised both the leaders and analysts communicating with him. In March 2014, Angel Merkel, after a conversation with Putin, told Barack Obama that she was not sure that Putin was in contact with reality: “He is in another world.” In the days when Russia joined Crimea, Putin was really beside himself : he spoke mutually exclusive theses and continuously lied. Then many observers shook their hands helplessly and argued with Merkel: “Putin is not insane, he is not in the“ other world ”. He is in his own world, and this world of decisive Russian nationalism seems to him very realistic, he is the master of this world. ” However, mentally ill people their world also seems very realistic.
Macron described Putin’s communication style in February-March 2022 as rigid and paranoid. Former President of Latvia Vike-Freberg also said that Putin’s features are inherent in paranoia: it all the time seems to be following him, he was attacked. Numerous security, consumption abroad only from products brought from Russia - the features of a man with a mania of persecution.
At the beginning of 2022, the American special services were very worried about Putin's mental stability. He again ceased to be prudent and cold -blooded, he became unstable and ceased to hide anger, said the former Secretary of State Condoliza Rice. A long isolation could cause Putin the " pride syndrome ", and a strong narrowing of the circle of communication - to lead to the inadequacy of his plans.
No psychiatrist will undertake Putin’s diagnosis remotely, without personal communication with the patient. But it can be stated that Putin often demonstrates the features of sociopath, he has many narcissistic features and some signs of a psychopath . “Putin was subjected to violence in childhood, and later felt devoted, exactly like Hitler, the same feeling of abandonment arose due to the collapse of the USSR,” said psychiatrist James H. Fallon, professor of California University. He considers Putin's behavior similar to the behavior of terrorists.
Many terrorists have a superiority. Back in 2014, the State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said :
“There is Putin - there is Russia, there is no Putin - no Russia.” This identification meets the thoughts of Putin himself.
“I read a mixture of cowardice, a small mind, mediocrity and some depressed complexes in his face that make it a very dangerous person. I am afraid that he imagined himself by the embodiment of the national spirit or something like that, ” said Academician Vyacheslav Ivanov in 2012. Having identified himself with the national spirit, Putin cannot part with the authorities while he is alive.
Fear, anxiety, pride, sociopathy, cruelty - these properties are inherent in many people. They may be accompanied by personal disorders. But most people have only separate narcissistic, sociopathic, psychopathic features, while in general they remain within the framework of the norm. Problems begin when a not quite stable person with resentment and supervisors turns out to be a dictator in a country with nuclear weapons.
Putin repeatedly demonstrated that he could use nuclear weapons. In March 2018, he said : “Yes, for humanity it will be a global catastrophe, for the world there will be a global catastrophe. But I, as a citizen of Russia and the head of the Russian state, want to ask myself: why do we need such a world if Russia is not there. ” Six months later, he developed the topic : “The aggressor should know that retaliation is inevitable. We will go to heaven as martyrs, and they will just die. ” Apparently, after 2014, Putin believed that he had a historical mission given by God, that he was a messenger of the Higher Forces, and began to behave like a person who entrusted him to the Almighty was written by the ex-director of the Moscow Center of Carnegie Dmitry Train.
Russia does not need a world without Russia, and Putin is Russia. This simple syllogism turns all Russians into Shahids.
Hawks and pigeons
An increase in bets in order to force the opponent to retreat may well be a rational strategy in conflict situations, showed the Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling, who studied international relations during the Cold War using the theory of games. Military theorists call this strategy “escalation for the sake of de -escalation”: to act aggressively in order to force an enemy who still has resources, retreat and stop the war on their own conditions. Escalation is needed to break the will in the opponent and cause him fear.
The philosopher Bertrand Russell anticipating Schelling in the book “ Common Sense and Nuclear Warfare ” compared the arms race between the USSR and the USA with Game of Chicken (“ Hawks and Pigeons ”), which is played by “some irresponsible boys”. Schelling used this comparison. In the book “The Strategy of the Conflict”, he described the arms race as a game of “hawks and pigeons”, in which two drivers move along a single -lane road towards each other, and the one who did not have to give way to the road wins. Clapping, the player loses less than both can lose as a result of a collision. To win, you need not to concede as long as possible and convince the opponent that you are ready to increase the rates further.
If the opponent was not convinced of the seriousness of his intentions, he will not give way. Conviction is achieved due to random acts of madness or long -term obligation not to retreat. Therefore, one of the names of this theory is the theory of the madman:
To win, you need to be truly crazy or successfully simulate madness. Dmitry Medvedev helps a lot in this Putin
With their statements about the readiness of the Russian leadership for the nuclear war and the need to change the political regime in Ukraine ( 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5, etc.).
Putin from the world of Dostoevsky
In “Hawks and pigeons”, in addition to Putin, the hero of one of Dostoevsky’s first novels, “Notes from the Underground” played. Well -being attracts far from all people in this world, an underground person is confident, a hero without a name, and suffering can bring a person no less pleasure than the good. The underground person is alienated from society, he is all the time in conflict with others and himself. He continuously experiences anxiety, anxiety , perceives the whole world as hostile.
The underground person lives in self -isolation, it is difficult for him to establish contact with other people. He is always afraid that they will laugh at him, he feels humiliated, he is often ashamed, he has low self -esteem. It seems to him that he was offended even when no one was going to do it. He considers himself sick, evil, unattractive, and at the same time - the most intelligent, above all other people. He hates other people and at the same time desperately envies them.
Once, on the way to the Bar of an underground man, a random officer nearly knocked down - he ran into him, but even did not notice this. The underground person who often met this officer on the street decided to answer him with the same blow. But he is afraid to do it. At the next meeting with the officer, the underground person lacks the spirit, and he turns the first. Two years later, after a long preparation, an underground person took money, bought an expensive coat and gloves to become equal with an officer. Having gathered all his will, he deliberately ran into an officer, but he again did not notice anything. Invented by an underground person
Resentment became the central event of his life. A huge amount of his mental strength has gone to find a way of revenge.
The characteristic of Putin, which was given by the Israeli Count of Inessa Goldberg, not knowing whose handwriting she analyzes, could relate to an underground person: he always feels offended, offended, discriminated, seeks to achieve respect and especially self -esteem. Poverty, psychological injuries, a sense of its inferiority in childhood pushed Putin on the path of hypercompensation through work in the KGB, wrote psychologist Vladimir Levy. Further, Putin became a slave to his super -brose: he is forced to prove all the time how powerful he is, inside remaining weak, uncertain, cowardly and psychologically underdeveloped. Children's grievances could form in the family and strengthen in the Leningrad courtyards, which livedaccording to the laws of the Gulag : who is older and stronger and aggressive, he leads others.
Children's insults stimulate both Putin's fear of defeat and the cultural cult of power. After the terrorist attack in Beslan (2004), Putin said : “They showed weakness. And the weak - beat. Some want to tear off a piece of "fatter" from us, others help them. They help, believing that Russia-as one of the largest nuclear powers of the world-still poses a threat to someone. Therefore, this threat must be eliminated. ” Putin’s confession on the topic of NATO approaching Russia, the social injury of the 1990s, which went to Europe of Ukraine and the need to prove to everyone that Russia is a superpower, is very reminiscent of the experiences of an underground person. They are based on anxiety, anxiety, narcissism, an idea of oneself as an insignificant person and dislike of other people.
How to win
Putin has long been all details from which you can collect a rationale for a nuclear strike. The last chord was the September annexation of 4 regions within the boundaries that Russia does not control. The inability to hold these territories or Crimea with conventional means may be an excuse for the use of nuclear weapons.
Until recently, the beloved by the Russians, Putin took them hostage and is ready to turn everyone into a marty.
The summary of his last major speech can be stated as follows: “The West has plunged the whole world into evil and exploits the entire globe. History called Russia on the battlefield against such a world order, nowhere to retreat. The nuclear weapons were the first to use not Russia, but the USA, before that, erasing Dresden, Berlin and Hamburg from the face of the earth, but why should only have rights to do this? ” The hero of “Crime and Punishment”, in which Dostoevsky predicted modern terrorism, reasoned something like this.
The idea to perceive Putin’s actions through the prism of psychology has many opponents. Putin is not crazy, but evil , some authors believe. Considering Putin to be mentally unstable and ready for the beginning of a nuclear war, the coalition of the countries supporting Ukraine should have refused to supply its weapons, opponents of this approach say . Healthy or sick, Putin in Ukraine commits a lot of war crimes, you need not to think about how not to cause Putin an attack of anger, which can lead to a nuclear strike, but about which strategy can put an end to these crimes.
You can find many arguments both in favor of the fact that Putin is insane, and in favor of the fact that he successfully simulates madness. Schelling theory shows that it doesn’t matter.
The main thing is that more and more people believe that Putin is insane. But this does not necessarily mean that he will win.
Because more and more global and regional players come to the conclusion that Putin’s victory cannot be allowed. The question is what price you will have to pay for it when Putin will continue to increase the rates.
To defeat the hawks and pigeons, which Putin has long imposed on the West, it doesn’t matter if he is insane or only wants to seem crazy. It is important that Putin knows: in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, he managed to win in Crimea. The United States, Germany and the West have repeatedly avoided a direct collision, turning off the road. This created Putin's feeling of absolute impunity, with which he in 2022 began the destruction of Ukraine. Путин может быть как тревожным и беспокойным социопатом или параноиком, так и хитрым и расчетливым игроком, который многократно демонстрировал более высокую готовность к риску, чем у его соперников, и поэтому побеждал.
But now the situation has changed. Путин по-прежнему готов рисковать, но коалиция развитых стран усиливает помощь Украине. Перспектива использования Путиным ядерного оружия перестала вызывать у политиков США и Европы замешательство и оторопь, парализующие их волю. Теперь они , как и Украина, готовы ответить . Возможно, у них есть план, как избежать лобового столкновения. Это должен быть план нейтрализации угрозы глобальной ядерной войны или план переформатирования «ястребов и голубей» в другую, более кооперативную игру. Шанс на это есть, ведь действия Путина ведут к резкому усилению недовольства войной внутри России. Если революция или переворот заставят Путина прекратить эту безумную игру, мало кто будет об этом сожалеть.
Этот текст основан на англоязычной публикации проекта The Russia File, блога Kennan Institute
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