Translated material
The cost of war in Ukraine. Online December 14
The Bell continues to conduct online, dedicated to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24.
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22:48 The Fed raised the rate by 50 rather than 75 basis points, as expected: to 4.25 - 4.5%. However, the median rate forecast for the end of next year is raised to 5.1% and to 4.1% in 2024, which is higher than the previous rate path. The regulator expects that this way inflation can be brought to the target 2%. The market saw this as a “hawkish” signal, and the indices began to decline.
19:31 The United States this week may impose sanctions against Vladimir Potanin and his Interros, but not against Norilsk Nickel, found out The Wall Street Journal . His wife Ekaterina Potanina, the yacht and Rosbank, bought out by Interros from Societe Generale, may also fall under the sanctions.
Until now, Potanin has avoided sanctions precisely because Norilsk Nickel, in which Interros has the largest share, is a key enterprise for the global economy (14% of the world's nickel needed in metallurgy and battery production). Palladium is an essential component of industrial and automotive catalysts.
19:08 Inflation in Russia in the week to December 12 fell to 0.19% compared to 0.58% the previous week. However, that week was anomalous, it accounted for the indexation of housing and communal services tariffs. At this price, prices continued to grow due to fruits and vegetables and air tickets that rose in price on New Year's Eve. Annual inflation accelerated again - to 12.65% from 12.5%.
Separately, Rosstat revised its estimate of the decline in GDP in the third quarter to 3.7% from 4.0%. Most of all, gross value added decreased in wholesale and retail trade - by 19.3%.
18:57 Today at 15:00 Moscow Exchange began trading in Whoosh shares. In the first minute, they sharply rose in price to 258.72 rubles, and then their cost dropped sharply to 157 rubles. After 18:00 they traded at the level of the placement price.
The market is very complex, and the fact that at least one placement took place this year is a great success, says Sergey Suverov, investment strategist at Arikapital. Since the paper was placed at the lower boundary and at an adequate assessment in terms of fundamental value, there is potential for quotes growth, but much will depend on the state of the market.
Despite the fact that the IPO passed at the lower limit , it can be considered successful, Evgeny Kalyanov, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, agrees. In his opinion, a significant drop in quotations should not be expected, because all shareholders and their affiliates are subject to restrictions on the alienation of shares within 185 days. A further IPO boom in the Russian market in the near future is not expected, but after the debut of Whoosh next year, it is likely that there will be several initial placements, Kalyanov admits.
17:07 A bill restricting the remote work of Russians from abroad will soon be submitted to the State Duma, the co-author of the initiative, Senator Andrey Klishas, confirmed to RTVI.
The fact that such a bill is being prepared was reported by the Nestka publication on Wednesday, citing sources in the State Duma. The list of persons falling under it is rather narrow - information security workers, officials, part of the transport industry. about the document Ksenia Sobchak also writes , but includes it in the list of persons with access to state secrets and information sensitive to the state.
The topic of "punishment" of those who went abroad after the start of the war and mobilization was developed by Klishas himself in a recent interview with Vedomosti, urging "to make being abroad less comfortable." It is not clear whether those who left, who have lost their Russian tax residency but continue to work for Russian companies, will be allowed to pay personal income tax at a rate of 13%, and not 30%. Last week, closed Yandex the full "remote work", it was recognized as undesirable in Russian state banks .
16:56 Before the embargo on Russian oil products, which comes into effect on February 5, Europe has a record increase in purchases of diesel fuel coming by sea, including in Russia. In the first 10 days of December, they rose almost to the level of February, Russia remains the main supplier (750 thousand barrels per day out of 1.6 million), Saudi Arabia is in second place.
15:05 Developer Inteko sold to Alexey Tulupov's Sminex for 38 billion rubles. This was told to RBC by the chairman of the board of the bank "Trust" Alexander Sokolov.
in much the same way The price, according to Sokolov, is high (the company was valued before the war), but he explains this by the large portfolio of Inteko - 73 thousand square meters. m of housing in Moscow (including two premium locations) and 138,000 in Rostov.
- Inteko was founded by Elena Baturina in 1991. The company has built over 5 million sq. m. After the resignation in 2010 of the wife of Baturina, Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, Inteko acquired the structures of Mikail Shishkhanov, the ex-owner of the sanitized Binbank. From Binbank, control over the developer passed to Trust in 2018.
- They wanted to sell Inteko last year, and then Sminex also claimed the asset, in addition to the developer Samolet and the company of Uralchem's shareholder Dmitry Mazepin. But the auction had to be canceled due to the blocking of shares by the Cypriot court at the suit of minority shareholders. "Trust" managed to remove the arrest in court, with minority shareholders there will be a separate trial, Sokolov said.
- Sminex is a Moscow developer of luxury real estate (for example, the Lavrushinsky house ). Another Tulupov company this year bought the assets of the Finnish confectionery company Fazer, which left Russia. In a recent interview with RBC, the businessman suspected the former owner of a lack of control over employees, and the latter of "theft or idiocy", due to which raw materials were allegedly purchased 10% more expensive than the market.
13:15 The IEA predicted for 2023 an increase in global oil demand by 1.7 million b/d to 101.6 million b/d and a drop in production in Russia by 14% by the end of the first quarter to 9.6 million b/d. This will mean a reversal of the trend of falling oil prices. According to the agency, Russia exported 8.1 million b/d in November, but its revenue fell due to lower prices.
12:36 Big tech shares have risen in price after encouraging inflation data in the US.
November US inflation data released on Tuesday turned out to be much better than expected: month-on-month price growth slowed to 0.1% compared to the expected 0.3% and against 0.4% in October. In annual terms, inflation slowed down to 7.1% against 7.7% a month earlier and the forecasted 7.3%. The decline in inflation is primarily due to the fall in energy prices.
Markets rated the data unequivocally: inflation is gradually starting to slow down, and therefore the Fed may need to raise rates less. In terms of inflation, the worst is behind us, WSJ quoted one of the analysts as saying.
Stocks and bonds after the release of the report immediately began to grow in price, the growth leaders were the shares of big tech, the most sensitive to changes in expectations for rates. Shares of the extremist Meta recognized in Russia on Tuesday rose by 4.7%, Alphabet - by 2.5%, while the S&P 500 grew by only 0.7%.
The Fed meeting will be held today. Given the new data on inflation, the rate may be increased by 0.5 percentage points, and not by 0.75 percentage points. like the previous four times.
10:52 Scooter rental service Whoosh has completed its IPO — the first and most likely the last IPO in Russia this year — and is starting trading on the Moscow Exchange under the ticker symbol WUSH today. The placement price was 185 rubles per share (lower limit of the price range). The company raised 2.1 billion rubles, and its market capitalization amounted to 20.6 billion rubles. As a result of the IPO, the share of shares in free float will exceed 10% of the increased share capital.
The main thing for the night and morning:
- Trust Bank is negotiating the sale of the Tochka fintech project, control over which it received only this year, learned Kommersant . Tinkoff can buy the project, and the amount of the transaction can be up to 20 billion rubles, the interlocutors of the publication say.
- The share of unsold apartments in new buildings across Russia in December reached a record 66% of the total housing under construction, writes RBC. In October, there was a sharp decline in sales of new buildings, and not only in relation to the year, but also in comparison with September. At the end of November, the situation improved slightly, although sales did not return to September values, notes Forbes . What will happen next with the real estate market, we told here .
- MTS Bank plans to open a branch in Dubai, sources told Kommersant. This will be the first branch of a Russian bank in the UAE. are also going to enter the market of this country Fix Price and two Russian developers .
- The government plans to prepare a federal project to support Russian video game developers, the Ministry of Digital Transformation is responsible for it, reports Kommersant . The Ministry of Education and Science will form new programs of higher and secondary specialized education for the training of specialized personnel. Experts are skeptical about the idea. The state has recently become interested in the video game market: grants are issued to online games . can be extended for games with national content, and the Yarovaya law
- Lawyers for the former co-owner of Otkritie Bank Boris Mints in a London court said it was impossible to recover $850 million from him and his family in favor of Russia, reports Bloomberg . The defense insists that the plaintiffs - Trust and Otkritie banks - are controlled by the Russian state, so paying them would violate British sanctions. "Trust" has been litigating with Mints and his family for three years. In 2018, he received on the balance sheet the assets of large banks sanitized by the Central Bank, including Otkritie. In 2019, the Trust filed a lawsuit with the High Court of London against Mintz and his two sons. A case of embezzlement has been initiated against all three in Russia.
- Users withdrew $1.9 billion from Binance in a day, and the day before, the outflow amounted to $902 million, writes Reuters. This is how investors reacted to the attempts of the crypto exchange to calm them down after the collapse of FTX with the help of a reserve confirmation system.
- Twitter after the transition to the ownership of Elon Musk stopped paying office rent in order to reduce costs, learned The New York Times . We are talking about the head office in San Francisco, as well as the company's representative offices in other countries. Also, Twitter has abandoned the services of private air carriers and wants to stop issuing severance pay to laid-off employees.