Trumpist trail: failure of Ukrainian counteroffensive resonates with US election battles and leads to weakening American support for Ukraine

A Gallup poll conducted in late October showed that, under the influence of the isolationist rhetoric of Trump and his supporters, American public opinion had shifted toward greater skepticism about support for Ukraine. The share of those who believe that the support provided is excessive has grown at the expense of Republicans and non-partisan respondents, and the Republican majority, which was split in the summer, is consolidating on pro-Trump positions. However, most Americans still favor war until Ukraine returns occupied territories, although this group's advantage is shrinking. This shift seems to be a fairly natural reaction to the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive and the wave of pessimism in Western media and political circles, reinforced by the pre-election split in American politics. The question of fundamental importance is whether this trend will continue in November under the pressure of Republican isolationism or whether it has already reached the bottom and the pro-Ukrainian party will find a new perspective for supporting Ukraine’s fight against Russian aggression.

Recent weeks have been marked by a growing wave of pessimism regarding Ukraine and its ability, if not to resist Russia, then at least to change the course of the conflict in its favor. An article in Time magazine described Zelensky's last trip to the United States in gloomy tones and his mood after meetings at the White House and the State Department (the article quotes Zelensky as saying that the world is “used to war” and “none of the world leaders” believes in Ukraine’s victory ). The NBC News channel, citing sources, reported that US and European officials, during a meeting of the Ramstein format contact group in October, began to discuss with the Ukrainian leadership the possibility of peace negotiations with Russia. The New York Times argued that Biden's aides do not believe that either side is currently in a position to significantly move the front line. And even the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhny, admitted in an interview with The Economist that the situation at the front has reached a dead end and a positional war could drag on for years - if the Ukrainian army is unable to use fundamentally new technologies in such areas as drones, electronic warfare and mine clearance.

This wave, on the one hand, reflects disappointment in the results of the Ukrainian counter-offensive and is intended to close this topic, and on the other hand, it resonates with the election battles in the United States. American media have been writing for two months about a decline in public sympathy for Ukraine, but, as Re: Russia noted in a recent review , American public opinion polls in late summer and early autumn did not provide sufficient grounds for such a statement. However, a Gallup poll conducted at the end of October reveals shifts that can be defined as the “Trumpist footprint,” that is, the influence of political debates on public opinion in the United States.

The survey showed that 41% of respondents believe that the United States is doing “too much” to support Ukraine, only a quarter still believes that it is not doing enough, and a third (33%) think that it is providing as much assistance as needed. This is a significant change compared to June, when the groups of those who believe that not enough is being done (26%) and too much (29%) were almost equal, and the largest group of respondents considered the amount of assistance to be normal - 41%.

“Reflecting on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, do you think the United States is doing too much to help Ukraine, not enough, or as much as needed?”, 2022–2023, % of respondents

The main proponents of the view that aid to Ukraine is excessive and ineffective are Donald Trump and the Trumpist faction of the Republican Party in American politics (Re: Russia wrote about this here ). A noticeable increase in those who believe that aid is excessive in the Gallup poll is ensured by an increase in the share of Republicans who think so (62% in October versus 50% in June) and “independent” (non-partisan) voters (44% in October versus 34% in June). Thus, the Republican majority, split in the summer, is gradually consolidating in Trump’s positions and influencing “independent” voters, the share of “skeptics” among whom is growing at almost the same rate as among Republicans (by 10 percentage points versus 12).

At the same time, according to the same survey, the majority of Americans (54%) still support Ukraine’s desire to return all occupied territories, even at the cost of prolonging the conflict, while 43% consider the priority to be a speedy peace through territorial concessions. However, in August 2022, two-thirds of Americans (66%) adhered to the first point of view, and in June 2023 there were 62% of them - against 36% of supporters of a speedy peace. That is, over the past four months there has been a much more noticeable shift in favor of the “peace lovers” than over the previous ten. And this shift is also driven by both Republican (increase from 49 to 55%) and “independent” voters (increase from 43 to 49%).

61% of Gallup respondents (84% of Republicans) say there should be limits to the financial aid Ukraine receives from Washington, while 37% of Americans (and 65% of Democrats) say aid should last as long as necessary. At the same time, the United States is Ukraine’s largest donor: according to a study by Christophe Trebesch published on the VoxUkraine analytical platform, Washington accounts for more than half of all Western obligations to Kiev. Donald Trump also plays on this theme, declaring that the burden of aid should be more fairly shared with Europe, for which this conflict is of greater importance.

The lack of obvious prospects for ending the war contributes to the decline in determination to support Ukraine. Regardless of party affiliation, 64% of respondents are confident that neither Ukraine nor Russia will prevail on the battlefield - this is by 7 percentage points. more than in June. The largest number of those who believe in the final victory of Ukraine is seen among the democrats. And although among the surveyed Democrats, 32% believe that Ukraine has an advantage in the current phase of the conflict, among Republicans and independents, half as many respondents think so.

However, the decline in the level of support for Ukraine in American society still does not look critical; it is rather about the need to correct pro-Ukrainian rhetoric and understand the goals of support. In the context of the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, such a decline seems natural. It seems fundamentally important whether this trend will continue in November under the pressure of Trump’s isolationist rhetoric or whether it has already reached its bottom and the pro-Ukrainian party will find a new prospect of supporting Ukrainian opposition to Russian aggression.