Vladimir Putin described the slowdown in Russian economic growth to 1% in 2025, following an average of 4.5% over the previous two years, as ‘man-made’, implying that the economy’s potential is substantially higher and that the drivers of its performance remain under the authorities’ control. In other words, the sharp deceleration is presented not as evidence of intractable problems that could herald a crisis after a period of ‘war overheating’, but as a deliberate adjustment.

Part 3 of the report ‘Return to Normality and Advanced Democratisation’ is dedicated to possible scenarios for political transformation in Russia and was prepared as part of the project ‘Platform for Normalisation: Restoring the Future’. It addresses a question that is usually left outside the scope of political reform plans. A ‘window of opportunity’ for democratisation generally opens in the context of a crisis of the authoritarian regime. However, not all such crises lead to democratisation.

Vladimir Putin called the slowdown in the growth rate of the Russian economy to 1% in 2025 after an average of 4.5% in the previous two years “man-made,” hinting that the economic potential is significantly higher, and the factors of its dynamics remain under the control of the Russian authorities.

The third part of the report “Return to Normality and Advanced Democratization,” dedicated to possible scenarios for political transformation in Russia and prepared as part of the project “Normalization Platform: Reclaiming the Future,” addresses an issue that usually remains outside the scope of political reform plans. A “window of opportunity” for democratization, as a rule, opens in connection with a crisis of an authoritarian regime, but not all such crises lead to democratization.