In the economy Crisis crossroads September 14, 2011 Maxim Blut The Nobel Laureate in Economics, invited to Yaroslavl, Paul Krugman, did not please the inviting side. Speaking at the International Forum there, Krugman estimated the probability of a new crisis of 50%. This assessment, no matter how gloomy it sounds, seems too optimistic, because it leaves the same 50 percent probability that the crisis can be avoided.