A planned economy, which will not be, the racing of the Sberbank and Yandex "and the investment in the gaming market

The government wants to regulate prices and print digital money for investment growth. But get scared early

This week, the government twice forced to recall the planned economy. At first, the Ministry of Economics and the Ministry of Economy got into the media, which also suggests a monetary issue to finance projects important for the state. And then the government, having listened to Vladimir Putin's indignant speech about the increase in food prices, quickly began to regulate them. It’s too early to be scared: both initiatives may not end in anything.

Investments from under the printing machine

The proposal to support the investment projects of the “target issue” of money fell into the plan for creating state support mechanisms to fulfill Vladimir Putin's assignment to increase 70% by 2030. With the plan stated in a letter to the Deputy Minister of Economics Andrei Ivanov, to the First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, the VTIMES publication got acquainted on Tuesday. The next day, Ivanov listed the same list of measures in a letter to the RSPP, which was quoted by Kommersant, and the Ministry of Economy confirmed its authenticity.

Most of the measures set forth in the documents of the ministry concerns benefits for projects based on the new law on the protection and encouragement of investment (SZPK), which the government counts on the main mechanism for supporting the growth of investment. Tax benefits promise business businesses, and banks - benefits on loans issued for their financing. A separate part is devoted to benefits for retail investors on the exchange, whose money is also counting on the Ministry of Economy.

The Central Bank immediately commented on the proposals in detail, and most harshly criticized - from benefits for banks (for example, including bonds under the SZPK in the pawnshop list of the Central Bank, which, according to the regulator, is not intended for this) to the benefits for retail investors, the mass arrival of which at the end of November called a new risk to the economy.

But the most violent indignation of the regulator caused a proposal to compensate for the captivity of investors to projects important for the state using the target emission - that is, printing money. Although not paper, but digital ones: the Ministry of Economy proposes to use a digital ruble for this, which the Central Bank plans to launch at the end of 2021. The Central Bank himself called this proposal “by the demolition of the basics of the macroeconomic policy of the Central Bank and the Government” and warned that the issue, regardless of its form, would lead to an increase in inflation.

The source of The Bell, close to the Central Bank, said with confidence that the regulator does not consider this proposal of the Ministry of Economy as serious and realistic, although the ministry also has sound proposals. In front of the government, previously impossible KPIs were delivered to the growth of investment, and it is trying to fulfill them at all costs, the source familiar with the course of the discussions of the government and the Central Bank believes. Ideologically in economic views, these are two opposite sides, but there is no open conflict between Andrei Belousov and Elvira Nabiullina, he says.

State prices

The next call sounded on Wednesday, when Vladimir Putin at a meeting on economic issues was indignant at the increase in prices for products and demanded that the government “react in a timely manner”. Putin completed his speech to a paradoxical parting words: "Look, how would we not succeed, as in the Soviet Union." Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin set about emergency measures, but the only way out was predictably to do, “as in the Soviet Union”, to begin regulation of retail prices for oil and sugar.

The next day, Mishustin retired Putin's outrage to the ministers, and already in the afternoon on Thursday, at a meeting at the Ministry of Agriculture, Andrei Belousov agreed with oil and sugar manufacturers to establish maximum retail prices for their products. How all this will be arranged, it is not yet clear - it is only clear that the government did not use the right to establish the prices of directively.

Prices will be regulated by agreements between manufacturers, retail chains and FAS, which should be agreed on December 15, and signed-to the 20th. Neither the validity of these agreements, nor measures against violators are known. Sources of Kommersant say that the subject of the agreement will be the “recommended maximum price”, sources of Forbes - “target average price”. The source of The Bell in the government called it “Target, to which we must strive,” but in the event of a distant deviation from him, sanctions will be threatened. The Forbes source, who participated in the discussion of oil prices, understood the offers of officials so that in case of growth in the price above the recommended (110 rubles per liter), the government will introduce an export fee for oil.

Sunflower oil and sugar for the past calendar year (November 2020 by November 2019), according to Rosstat, went up in price in retail by 25% each. For rising prices, there are objective reasons - crop failure of sunflower and sugar beets in Russia and Ukraine, the maximum increase in world prices for vegetable oils since 2014, restoration of sugar prices after a record fall in 2019–2020 and ruble devaluation in 2020.

Anton Tabah’s chief economist RA RA recalls: the prices that the government are going to regulate the government have grown strongly only in recent months, and in previous years, when everything was valued, they did not grow and even cheaper. The MMI Telegram channel, founded by the director of the Department of Monetary Policy of the Central Bank, Kirill Tremasov, gave a schedule from the last review of the Central Bank for inflation, from which it is clear that both sugar and sunflower oil for the last three years, taking into account inflation, have declined-and now they only caught up with the general inflation.

Anton Tabakh expects that the intervention of officials will be limited to verbal interventions: “The government will defiantly talk to retail networks or set the maximum price for the only variety of both products. The consumer in the store may not even notice this then - but he will remember with warmth that they took care. ” A similar opinion on the eve was expressed by the informed official with whom The Bell spoke-the holding of prices will “remain PR” before the large press conference of Vladimir Putin, planned on December 17, he predicted. Talk about limiting products for products in Russia is every crisis, but they do not lead to anything - it remains to be hope that this time the authorities will be limited only by people popular among people, the rector of the Russian Economic School Ruben Enicolopes concludes.

What am I to me?

Good news: the government does not seem to have no serious plans for the non -market regulation of the economy. Bad news: to cope with the basic problems that are behind these non -market declarations - the fall of the population’s incomes and the stagnation of the economy with which Russia has been living since 2014 - clearly has not yet been obtained.

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This week turned out to be rich in history about the life of people from the environment of Vladimir Putin. The publication "Important Stories" gained access to postal correspondence for 17 years of the former father -in -law of President Kirill Shamalov. A lot of interesting things were found in it: an account of multi -billion dollar assets, by no means a modest way of life and a giant weight in society. True, with most attributes, and at the same time, with a place in the Forbes list, Shamalov had to part after a divorce from Katerina Tikhonova. And, as The Bell found out, not only to him: at about the same time, his father Kirill, a long -standing acquaintance of Vladimir Putin Nikolai Shamalov, lost his share at the Russia Bank.

But the other president’s acquaintance, Yuri Kovalchuk, have passed fruitfully in recent years. In fact, Kovalchuk suffered for Crimea (sanctions were imposed against him in 2014), but his structures insured the Crimean bridge and took control of the most diverse local businesses, found out The Bell and the “project” - and it seems that these are not just social services.

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